Predicting future queries from log data

ABSTRACT

A system, media, and method for selecting future queries are provided. The selected future queries are used to transmit appropriate online advertising to a user that issues queries to a search engine. The search engine is coupled to a prediction component that predicts what subject the user is going to be interested in and when the user will be interested in the subject. The prediction component returns a future query using statistical language models representing a query history of the user and aggregate query histories for a community of users.

PRIORITY

This application claims priority and is a continuation of U.S.application Ser. No. 12/204,472, Attorney Docket No.MS#324627.01/MFCP.142796, filed Sep. 4, 2008, titled “Predicting FutureQueries From Log Data,” which is incorporated herein by reference.

BACKGROUND

Conventionally, short-term intent detection applications are used topredict a user's subsequent query based on previous queries. Theshort-term intent detection applications are executed by search enginesto provide keyword suggestions to users that issue queries to a searchengine. The keyword suggestions may be used to refine the queries thatare submitted to the search engine or to anticipate subsequent queries.

Conventional short-term intent detection applications infer a user'sintent based on their issued queries. The conventional short-term intentdetection application analyzes the user's issued queries to infer theuser's intent. Based on the inferred user's intent, the conventionalshort-term intent detection application predicts the next query that theuser will issue during the current search session.

The current search session of the user includes queries that areproximate in time and related to a particular topic identified from theterms of the query. For instance, a user may access a search engine pageand issue a query for a movie. The access to the search engine initiatesthe search session. The search session terminates when the user closesthe webpage or changes topic. The user may change topic by idling for aperiod of time or by issuing a query for a new topic, i.e., finance,without using a linking term to connect to the previous queries of theprevious topic, i.e., movie. The conventional short-term intentdetection application executes during each search session and analyzesqueries within the search session to suggest the subsequent query thatthe user will issue to the search engine. In turn, the search enginetransmits the suggested query to the user.

SUMMARY

Embodiments of the invention include computer-readable media, computersystems, and computer-implemented methods for predicting future queriesfor a user based on aggregate queries from a community of users and aquery history for users that are currently in search sessions withsearch engines.

The computing system includes search engines, query logs, and predictioncomponents. The computing system selects a future query. The searchengines receive queries from a user and provide results to the user. Thequery logs coupled to the search engines store queries issued by theuser and other users of the search engine. In turn, the predictioncomponents select future queries that the user is likely to issue in acertain time period based on a query history for the user and aggregatedbehaviors for a group of users having corresponding queries stored inthe query logs.

This Summary is provided to introduce a selection of concepts in asimplified form that are further described below in the DetailedDescription. This Summary is not intended to identify key features oressential features of the claimed subject matter, nor is it intended tobe used as an aid in determining the scope of the claimed subjectmatter.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 illustrates an exemplary computing environment for selectingfuture queries, according to embodiments of the invention;

FIG. 2 illustrates an exemplary component diagram of a computer systemfor selecting advertisements that correspond to future queries,according to embodiments of the invention;

FIG. 3 illustrates an exemplary graph for language models generated fromquery logs, according to embodiments of the invention;

FIG. 4 illustrates an exemplary method to select a future query,according to embodiments of the invention; and

FIG. 5 illustrates an exemplary method to determine a likelihood for afuture query, according to embodiments of the invention.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

This patent describes the subject matter for patenting with specificityto meet statutory requirements. However, the description itself is notintended to limit the scope of this patent. Rather, the inventors havecontemplated that the claimed subject matter might also be embodied inother ways, to include different steps or combinations of steps similarto the ones described in this document, in conjunction with otherpresent or future technologies. Moreover, although the terms “step” and“block” may be used herein to connote different elements of methodsemployed, the terms should not be interpreted as implying any particularorder among or between various steps herein disclosed unless and exceptwhen the order of individual steps is explicitly described. Further,embodiments are described in detail below with reference to the attacheddrawing figures, which are incorporated in their entirety by referenceherein.

As utilized herein, the term “component” refers to any combination ofhardware, software, or firmware.

A search engine configured with a predictor component generates futurequeries for a user based on user queries and aggregate queries. Thepredictor component generates language models from the query log. Thelanguage models include a background model and a lifetime model for thestatistical usage of queries sent to the search engine. In certainembodiments, the future queries selected by the predictor component areused to select advertisements that are displayed to a user at anappropriate time.

A computer system for selecting future queries and generatingadvertisements includes client devices communicatively connected to asearch engine and advertisement platform. The client devices generateuser queries and transmit the user queries to the search engine. Thesearch engine includes a predictor component that generates futurequeries for the user. The future queries are selected based onstatistical probabilities of queries received from other users and thequery history of the user that issues a query to the search engine.

As one skilled in the art will appreciate, the computer system includeshardware, software, or a combination of hardware and software. Thehardware includes processors and memories configured to executeinstructions stored in the memories. In one embodiment, the memoriesinclude computer-readable media that store a computer-program producthaving computer-useable instructions for a computer-implemented method.Computer-readable media include both volatile and nonvolatile media,removable and nonremovable media, and media readable by a database, aswitch, and various other network devices. Network switches, routers,and related components are conventional in nature, as are means ofcommunicating with the same. By way of example, and not limitation,computer-readable media comprise computer-storage media andcommunications media. Computer-storage media, or machine-readable media,include media implemented in any method or technology for storinginformation. Examples of stored information include computer-useableinstructions, data structures, program modules, and other datarepresentations. Computer-storage media include, but are not limited to,random access memory (RAM), read only memory (ROM), electricallyerasable programmable read only memory (EEPROM), flash memory or othermemory technology, compact-disc read only memory (CD-ROM), digitalversatile discs (DVD), holographic media or other optical disc storage,magnetic cassettes, magnetic tape, magnetic disk storage, and othermagnetic storage devices. These memory components can store datamomentarily, temporarily, or permanently.

FIG. 1 illustrates an exemplary computing environment 100 for selectingfuture queries, according to embodiments of the invention. The computingenvironment 100 includes a network 110, a search engine 120, a predictorcomponent 121, client devices 130, query logs 140, an advertisementplatform 150, and advertisements 160.

The network 110 is configured to facilitate communication between theclient devices 130 and the search engine 120. The network 110 may be acommunication network, such as a wireless network, local area network,wired network, or the Internet. In an embodiment, the client devices 130communicate user queries to the search engine 120 utilizing the network110. In response, the search engine 120 communicates future queriesrelated to the user queries, results of the user queries, andadvertisements 160 corresponding to the future queries to the clientdevices 130.

The search engine 120 responds to user queries received from the clientdevices 130. The search engine 120 includes a predictor component 121that generates future queries based on language models representingqueries from other users and previous queries of the user that issuedthe query. The search engine is communicatively connected to query logs140 that store the queries issued by users. In some embodiments, thesearch engine 120 returns advertisements related to the future queriesto the user. Moreover, the search engine 120 may provide a listing ofresults that includes webpages or electronic documents that match theterms included in the user queries or the future queries generated bythe predictor component 121.

The predictor component 121 generates language models from query logs toforecast a query that will be issued by a user within a specifiedperiod. The specified period may include a week, a bi-week, a month, aquarter, or a year. The predictor component 121 analyzes query logs 140for a user and other users to the search engine to generate the languagemodels, which include statistical models for the queries received by thesearch engine 120. In turn, the predictor component 121 returns futurequeries having a high probability—probability close to unity—of beingsubsequently issued within a corresponding time period by the user thatissued the related queries to the search engine.

The client devices 130 are utilized by a user to generate user queriesand receive query results, advertisements, or future queries. The clientdevices 130 include, without limitation, personal digital assistants,smart phones, laptops, personal computers, or any other suitable clientcomputing device. The user queries generated by the client devices 130may include terms that correspond to things that the user is seeking.

The query logs 140 store queries issued by the users of the clientdevices 130. The query logs 140 include the terms of the query, the timethe query was issued, a pointer to results corresponding to the query,and user interaction behavior including dwell times and click-throughrates. Moreover, the query logs may include transaction data forpurchases made by the user. The query logs 140 may also include anidentifier, such as a media access address or internet protocol address,for each client device and correspond the identifier for the clientdevice to queries included in the query logs 140. In some embodiment,the user of the client device 130 may register a user name and passwordwith the search engine 120 to have the queries issued by the userassociated with a profile of the user. Accordingly, the query logs mayalso store identifiers for the users or the client devices 130. In analternate embodiment, the identifier corresponding to the queries storedin the query logs 140 may be a cookie that is a combination of anidentifier of a client device 130 and an identifier of the user.

The advertisement platform 150 generates advertisements 160 that aretransmitted via network 110 to the client devices 130, which display theadvertisements 160 to the user. In certain embodiments, theadvertisement platform 150 receives a future query generated by thepredictor component 121 and selects an advertisement 160 thatcorresponds to the future query. Additionally, in an embodiment, thepredictor component 121 may specify a time period for displaying theadvertisement 160 based on the time period that the user may issue thefuture query. In other words, the predictor component 121 may instructthe advertisement platform 150 to delay transmission of theadvertisement 160 to the user until the specified timed period hasexpired. Once the time period has expired, the advertisement platform150 may transmit the advertisement to the client device 130.

The advertisements 160 include banner advertisements, text, and imagethat describe a product, service or thing that an advertiser wishes topromote to users. The things described in the advertisements 160 mayinclude events and items from all over the world, from variousmerchants, and from various distributors. The advertisements 160 areselected by the advertisement platform 150 and transmitted to theappropriate client device 130 at the appropriate time.

Accordingly, the computing environment 100 is configured with a searchengine 120 that predicts what the user is going to be interested in andwhen the user's interest is going to occur. After the search engine 120generates a prediction of the user's queries, an advertisement platform150 generates advertisements 160 that should result in a successfultransaction with the user.

One of ordinary skill in the art understands and appreciates theoperating environment 100 has been simplified for description purposesand alternate operating environments are within the scope and spirit ofthis description.

In certain embodiments, a computer system is configured with a datacollection component, query logs, and language models for generating afuture query for a user issuing queries to a search engine. The languagemodels are tuned by the computing environment using statisticalprobabilities of queries collection by the data collection component andstored in the query logs. The user submits the user query to the datacollection component via the search field to obtain a listing of webpages or electronic documents that match the user query, the futurequery related to the submitted user query, or advertisements thatcorrespond to the user query or a future query generated by thecomputing system.

FIG. 2 illustrates an exemplary component diagram of a computer system200 for selecting advertisements that correspond to future queries,according to embodiments of the invention. The computer system 200includes a data collection component 210, a query log component 220, alanguage model component 230, a client 240, a future query selector 250,and an advertisement selector 260.

The data collection component 210 collects the queries issued by a userof the computing system 200. The queries are stored in a database or anyother storage structure along with a day and time the query was issuedand appropriate identifiers for the user that issued the query. Thedatabase storing the queries may be the query log component 220.

The query log component 220 stores the queries and sorts the queriesreceived into partitions. The partitions may be identified based on timeperiod. The query log component 220 may partition the queries based onweeks of a year. Thus, each query received by the data collectioncomponent 210 during the first week of a year is associated with afirst-week partition. Further, each query received by the datacollection component 210 during the second week of a year is associatedwith a second-week partition. In another embodiment, the partitions mayinclude bi-weeks, months, quarters, or years. The partitioned queriesrepresent query sequences received from users during the time periodassociated with partition. The partitioned queries are analyzed by thelanguage model component 230 to detect patterns across varying timeperiods and to generate the language models for predicting futurequeries. In some embodiments, the query log component 220 stores a queryhistory associated with an identifier for a user that issues queries toa search engine.

The language model component 230 is used to predict a future query for auser from the user's query history and aggregate user histories storedin by the query log component 220. The language model component 230 usesstatistical calculations to tune the language model and to generate thefuture query. In the language model, P(q) is the probability of issuinga query at a specified time. P(q)=αP_(F)(q)+(1−α)P_(B)(q). P_(B)(q) isthe background model, P_(F)(q) is the lifetime model, and α is a tuningvariable that is altered during a learning stage for generation of thebackground model and the lifetime model.

The background model represents a probability that is assigned to thequery based on aggregate queries from other users that are stored in thequery log. The background model may be used to select a popular query ora randomly selected query as the future query when the lifetime model isnot available, P_(F)(q)=0, because the computer system 200 does not havedata or query patterns collected from the user that issued the query.When the lifetime model is unavailable, the computer system uses thebackground model to predict the query. For instance, during a year usersof the computing system 200 may submit queries for housing 1,000 timesand queries for furniture may be submitted 100 times. These queries arestored by the query log component 220. In turn, the language modelcomponent 230 processes the queries and the background model determinesthat the probability of any user issuing a query for housing is 0.909 asopposed to 0.0909, which is the probability of a user issuing a queryfor furniture. The language model component 230 determines that thequery for housing is ten times more likely to be submitted as a query bythe current user of the computing system 200 than a query for furniture.The language model component 230 may make this determination withoutreferencing the lifetime model for the user because the lifetime modelfor the user is unavailable. Accordingly, the background modeldetermines which queries stored in the query log component are morelikely to be submitted by the user without considering the user's queryhistory. Instead, the background model looks at the query historiesstored in the query log component 220 for all other users of thecomputing system 200.

The language model component 230 generates the lifetime model bytraversing the query history of the user that issued the query. Thelanguage model component 230 partitions the query history of the userinto different time periods. Each partition, Q_(t), includes a set ofqueries that occur at a time prior to the future query. In someembodiment, the language model component 230 may partition the user'squery history by a timestamp, date and time, associated with each query.The timestamp may reflect the time the query is issued by the user orthe time the data collection component 210 receives the query. Thequeries in each partition may impact the future query. Accordingly, thelanguage model component 230 generates the lifetime model by

${{P_{F}(q)} = {\frac{1}{T}{\sum\limits_{t = {1 - T}}{P\left( {qQ_{t}} \right)}}}},$

which sums partial probabilities within each partition across all timeperiods of the user's query history.

The language model component 230 calculates the partial probabilitiesP(q|Q_(t)) with each partition by

${P\left( {qQ_{t}} \right)} = {\frac{1}{Q_{t}}{\sum\limits_{q_{k} \in Q_{t}}{{P\left( {{qq_{k}},t} \right)}.}}}$

For each query in the partition issued proximate to time period, t,which corresponds to the partition time period, the language modelcomponent 230 determines the probability that the future query, q, isrelated to current query, q_(k), included in the partition, Q_(t). Thelanguage model component 230 calculates the probability of relatednessbetween the future query and the current query using hidden categoriesof relationships, C_(j), to define the relationship between the futurequery and the current query by evaluating P(q|q_(k),t)=Σ_(C) _(j)P(q|C_(j),t)P(C_(j)|q_(k)).

The hidden categories of relationship, C_(j), may be altered during thelearning stage of the generation of the background model and lifetimemodels to maximize the observed probabilities associated with queriesreceived from other users. During the learning stage, the language modelcomponent 230 attempts to maximize P(Q)=Π_(q)P(q) for the observedqueries included in the query log component 220 by tuning C_(j),P(q|C_(j),t), P(C_(j)|q_(k)), and α.

The client 240 issues queries to the computing system 200 at varioustimes. The client 240 receives a future query from a future queryselector 250. The future query selector 250 applies the backgroundmodels and lifetime models to select a future query for the user. In anembodiment of the invention, the future query selector 250 transmits thefuture query to the client 240 or to an advertisement selector 260.

The advertisement selector 260 receives the future query and selects theappropriate advertisement. In some embodiments, the future queryselector informs the advertisement selector of a time period fortransmitting an advertisement to the client 240. Accordingly, thecomputer system 200 may predict what queries a user is going to issuenow, three months from now, or any specified time period from now, basedon the user's query history and the aggregated queries of all otherusers of the computer system.

The language models generated by the computing system may be used by aprediction component or future query selector to identify a time periodof a future query and terms for the future query. In an embodiment, thelanguage models may be represented by a graph illustrating a user queryhistory across all time periods included in the query logs andcorresponding category clusters defined by the computing system usingaggregate queries from other users included in the query log. The graphmay be used to select the query having the highest probability.

FIG. 3 illustrates an exemplary graph 300 for language models generatedfrom query logs, according to embodiments of the invention. The graph300 includes partitions, Q_(t), that include queries, q_(k), issuedproximate to time period t. For each query, q_(k), the graph includes alink to a cluster, C_(j), that specifies the probability,P(C_(j)|q_(k)), that the query belongs to the cluster. Generally, aquery with similar semantic meaning or high affinity to a categoryassociated with a cluster is assigned a high probability by thecomputing system. For example, the category vehicle may include links toqueries for cars, autos, automobiles, sport utility vehicles (SUV),Toyota™, and Honda™. These terms may be assigned high probabilities forthe category vehicle because of the similar meaning among the terms orthe high affinity for the terms. Thus, the related terms do notnecessarily need the same meaning as the term corresponding to thecategory for the cluster. The computing system assigns the probabilityof relatedness based on the queries included in the query logs. In anembodiment, the probability of relatedness is estimated from aggregatedqueries issued by other users. Once the probability of the current querybeing related to the cluster is defined by the computing system, thecomputing system estimates the probability that the future query isrelated to the category corresponding to the cluster after a specifiedtime period P(q|C_(j),t). The computing system determines a probabilitythat the future query is related to the cluster after a specified timeperiod is observed by analyzing the aggregated queries stored in thequery logs.

The graph 300 includes a background model node that represents theprobability that the future query is a popular query that was issued bythe other users. The computing system estimates P_(B)(q) by analyzingthe aggregated queries included in the query logs. Based on theidentified clusters, C_(j), the computing system may estimate theprobability for the future query, q, using the graph 300 that includesP(C_(j)|q_(k)), P(q|C_(j),t), P_(B)(q). Accordingly, the computingsystem may efficiently compute P(q)=αP_(F)(q)+(1−α)P_(B)(q).

In some embodiments, the computing system uses the aggregated queriesfor other users stored in the query logs to tune the language models.The language models are tuned by adjusting parameters C_(j),P(q|C_(j),t), P(C_(j)|q_(k)), and α until the probability determinationsbecome constant. During the learning stage, the parameters areinitialized to random values. The computing system uses the randomvalues to estimate the probabilities. The estimated probabilities arecompared to the probabilities observed from the aggregated query logs bythe computing system. The parameters are tuned by the computing systemto allow the estimated probabilities to converge to the observedprobabilities. Accordingly, the learning stage tunes the languagemodels.

In embodiments of the invention, the language models representstatistical models that are used to forecast user queries. The computingsystem executes computer-implemented methods to receive a user query andapply the language models on the received user query. In turn, thecomputing system generates a future query for the user and specifies atime period to deliver the future query. Thus, when the time periodexpires the computing system may provide the future query to the user oran advertisement corresponding to the future query.

FIG. 4 illustrates an exemplary method to select a future query,according to embodiments of the invention. The method initializes instep 410. In step 420, the computing system receives a query from a userof the computing system. In step 430, the computer system determineswhether a user query history is available for the user. When a queryhistory of the user is unavailable, the computer system generates abackground model query as the future query for the user in step 440. Insome embodiments, the background model query is randomly selected fromthe query log or a query identified to be frequently used in theaggregated queries for a community of users. However, when a queryhistory of the user is available, the computer system compares the queryhistory of the user to an aggregate query history for other users, instep 450. In turn, the computing system statistically selects a futurequery, in step 460. The method terminates in step 470.

In an alternate embodiment, the computing system uses language models todetermine a probability for a future query. The computing systempartitions the user query history and aggregated queries from otherusers. In turn, clusters are identified and used to calculaterelatedness probabilities of a current query to a cluster andrelatedness probabilities of a future query to a cluster. The computingsystem uses the relatedness probabilities and a background modelprobability to estimate the probability of the future query.

FIG. 5 illustrates an exemplary method to determine a likelihood for afuture query, according to embodiments of the invention. The methodinitializes in step 510. In step 520, the computing system collects datafrom searches issued by users. The computing system receives a userquery at a certain time, in step 530. In turn, the computing systemgenerates prediction language models from the collected data, in step540. In step 550, the computing system predicts a likelihood of a futurequery based on the language models and a query history of the user. Instep 560, the method terminates.

In summary, media, method, and computing systems collect data from userqueries and store the collected data in query logs. The query logs areanalyzed by the computing systems to identify patterns and probabilitiesassociated with the identified patterns to generate language models thatpredict future queries for a user. The computing systems employ alearning stage to tune the language models based on observedprobabilities in the query logs for a community of users. The computingsystem uses the future queries to suggest terms for subsequent queriesto a user at a predefined time period or to select appropriateadvertisements for the user at the predefined time period.

For instance, when the computing system receives frequent queries forhomes, the computing system may predict that the user may develop aninterest in furniture in the coming weeks. Similarly, when the computingsystem receives frequent queries for cars and the queries indicate thatthe user recently purchased a car, the computing system may predict thatthe user may be interested in car insurance every six months or everyyear or that the user may be interested in car maintenance after awarranty period expires. Thus, the computing system is configured tosuggest future queries at a time that the user is most likely going toissue queries for the thing predicted by the computer system or presentadvertisements related to the future queries at the time the user ismost likely going to issue queries for the thing predicted by thecomputer system.

The foregoing descriptions of the embodiments of the invention areillustrative, and modifications in configuration and implementation willoccur to persons skilled in the art. For instance, while the embodimentsof the invention have generally been described with relation to FIGS.1-5, those descriptions are exemplary. Although the subject matter hasbeen described in language specific to structural features ormethodological acts, it is to be understood that the subject matterdefined in the appended claims is not necessarily limited to thespecific features or acts described above. Rather, the specific featuresand acts described above are disclosed as example forms of implementingthe claims. The scope of the embodiments of the invention areaccordingly intended to be limited only by the following claims.

1. A computing system configured to identify a predicted future query, the system comprising: one or more query logs configured to store queries issued by users in several partitions; and one or more prediction components configured to identify predicted future queries that a user is likely to issue in a certain time period based on a query history for the user and aggregated behaviors for a group of users corresponding to the queries stored in the query log for the group of users.
 2. The computing system of claim 1, further comprising one or more advertising platforms configured to use the predicted future queries to select proper advertisements as a function of time.
 3. The computing system of claim 2, wherein the selected advertisement is displayed after a predicted period of time associated with the predicted future queries expires.
 4. The computing system of claim 2, wherein the selected advertisement is displayed to the user after a predicted period of time has expired since the predicted future queries were identified.
 5. The computing system of claim 4, wherein the predicted period of time is one of a quarter year, a month, a bi-week, or a week.
 6. The computing system of claim 1, wherein the predicted future queries are associated with recurring events.
 7. One or more computer readable media storing instructions for performing a method of presenting advertisements for a predicted future query, the method comprising: identifying a predicted future query; selecting advertisements that correspond to the future predicted query; and displaying the advertisements for a time period that corresponds to a predicted time period that a user will issue the future predicted query.
 8. The media of claim 7, wherein the predicted future query is based on previous activities of the user observed through previously received user queries and common behaviors of other users represented in query log data.
 9. The media of claim 7, wherein the advertisements include banner advertisements, text, images, audio, or video.
 10. The media of claim 7, wherein the predicted time period is one of: immediately, 24 hours, one month, three month, or one quarter.
 11. The media of claim 7, wherein the predicted future query is associated with a recurring event.
 12. The media of claim 7, wherein the predicted future query is identified based on a background model.
 13. The media of claim 7, wherein the predicted future query is identified based on a lifetime model.
 14. A computer-implemented method of presenting advertisements for a predicted future query, the method comprising: identifying a predicted future query; selecting advertisements that correspond to the future predicted query; and displaying the advertisements for a time period that corresponds to a predicted time period that a user will issue the future predicted query.
 15. The method of claim 14, wherein the predicted future query is based on previous activities of the user observed through previously received user queries and common behaviors of other users represented in query log data.
 16. The method of claim 14, wherein the predicted time period is one of: immediately, 24 hours, one month, three month, or one quarter.
 17. The method of claim 14, wherein the predicted future query is associated with a recurring event.
 18. The method of claim 14, wherein the advertisements are displayed to the user proximate to a time the predicted future query is identified or the advertisements are communicated after a period of time has expired since the predicted future query was identified, the period of time is one of a quarter year, a month, a bi-week, or a week.
 19. The method of claim 7, wherein the predicted future query is identified based on a background model.
 20. The media of claim 7, wherein the predicted future query is identified based on a lifetime model. 